Via Brad DeLong who says, "This is, I think, very good work--and the worst news about the human future I have learned in months." :
Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information, Maximilian Auffhammer and Richard T. Carson (2008)
ABSTRACT: Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2015 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This dataset contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.